If you mean you're fishing dry flies in 10 feet of water, and you don't see any fish rising, then it's less likely that fish will come to the surface than be caught underneath. But 10 feet is pretty deep to be fly fishing in most streams anyway, even with nymphs or streamers. You can find easier water to fish than that
Sometimes bugs hatch in cold weather, but if you don't see them, then the colder the water is, the better off you are fishing on the bottom with nymphs.
Start fishing Oatka Creek. Go over to Carl Coleman's fly shop and ask some questions and they'll get you pointed in the right direction. Hiring a guide can also be a good education for learning how to fish the area.